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Pressure of be issued to lower levels of economy of CPI rapid fall after a rise
From;    Author:Stand originally


Hold at Tsinghua university in 18 days " financial crisis and China " on forum, tsinghua university China and Li Daokui of director of world economy research center released this center macroscopical economy forecasts a report, the report predicts, our country GDP is in delay trend basically, add fast meeting to achieve this year 10.3% , will fall next year to 9.7% . CPI goes up this year predict to achieve 6.4% , and will drop considerably next year for 2.6% .
In addition, exit is added fast predict to be this year 21% , and will drop next year for 17.9% ; The entrance is added fast predict to be this year 26% , will be next year 16.2% . As a result of international situation reason, exit puts delay relatively apparent.
Supply of broad sense money (M2) add fast predict to be this year 14.66% , will be next year 17.5% . Fixed assets investment is added fast predict to be this year 20.5% , and will be next year 18.2% , drop considering prices element, of next year add actually fast will fast this year.
Predicting CPI goes up glide quickly
The data that world economy research center Tsinghua university China and Professor Yuan Gang bright releases to this center refers read, he thinks our country CPI predicts to glide rate is very rapid, although this is the expression that inflationary pressure reduces greatly, but also show economy is added at the same time fast in glide. If policy response is insufficient seasonable, pressure of economic be issued to lower levels is very great.
Professor Yuan Gang bright expresses, in September supply of broad sense money (M2) remaining sum is 45.29 trillion yuan, grow 15.29% compared to the same period, fall to come to a year nadir, loan increases rate from 2, will begin successive all the time whereabouts March, our country money has appeared constrictive phenomenon. Next year CPI is added fast if drop 1%-2% , GDP is added fast may glide 8% .
He is analysed, our country the economic situation this year, with will be watershed July, mix first half of the year second half of the year is disparate. Adopt constrictive policy first half of the year, it is dangerous to had begun to be faced with deflationary, economy to glide quickly after July, the price falls quickly.
The first, consumptive price exceeds anticipate drop substantially. CPI goes up last month fall to 4.9% , but pork price has begun to drop, breed from the farmer door bear for ability, the price already was passed low. If say to be before July, price fall still is welcome change, begin from last month, price fall cannot have made a person hopeful.
The 2nd, PPI drops swift and violent. Recently two weeks, price fall of rolled steel, nonferrous metal, coal, industrial chemicals is swift and violent, the share drops bit higher than June even 50% , appear 5, come 6 years the biggest drop, as a result is very much price of manufacturer finished product under cost price, cause company loss, must reduction of output even stop production. The low that company goods in stock falls to go up to the history, a few enterprises are not worth as a result of capital, must low sell goods.
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