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Inflation puts delay in September PPI, CPI or double fall
From;    Author:Stand originally

Today bright two days, national statistic bureau will publish report of quarter of state of boom of 3 quarters industry and report of quarter of entrepreneur confidence index in succession. On October 21, economy of countryman of before national statistic bureau will be held 3 quarters runs circumstance press conference, at the appointed time the dweller will consume price index in September (the important data such as CPI) also will be announced. The expert is forecasted CPI and PPI will glide synchronism in September.

The personage inside course of study expresses, do not eliminate occurrence inflation and GDP to drop at the same time at present. Yesterday, group of task of national information center puts forward, economic boom is in short-term inside pick up hard, suggest decision-making layer undertakes from all directions face policy is adjusted, in order to carry brace up economy.

3 quarters GDP or fall for 9.7 %

Golden company chief economist breaths out afterwards inscription to think in, inflation will continue to alleviate September, and industry is produced somewhat spring back. He predicts September CPI general from on of the month 4.9% fall further to 4.5%~4.8% , PPI suffers the effect of callback of price of international heavy goods, fall after a rise seeing a top comes 9.7%~10.0% , but with CPI hang still maintain.

Li Huiyong of presiding and macroscopical analyst predicts Shen Yinmo country, the CPI September is added fast and on the month is almost 5% , but PPI can drop considerably to 8.1% , than last month 10.1% drop considerably 2 percent. The fall after a rise of macroscopical economy is affirmative, "Predict 3 quarters GDP is added fast will drop for 9.7 % . " and 2008 first quarter, the GDP of 2 quarters is added fast it is respectively 10.6% with 10.1% .

Macroscopical economy grows national information center everywhere Zhang Yongjun thinks, the CPI of a few months after this year reduces 4% the following possibility further not quite. Grow as to Chinese economy whether already after all, zhang Yongjun thinks to return premature to say. He points out, the biggest factor that economy of current influence China glides is outside need, and outside need to affect existence time lag to exit. Next China are exported to Europe even fall after a rise.

Golden company Ha Jiming also predicts imports and exports will continue in fatigued and weak: "Need outside depressed make export performance exhausted September weak, predict to grow 19% compared to the same period; The entrance predicts to grow 22% compared to the same period; Favorable balance of trade grows 7.9% to come compared to the same period 25.8 billion dollar.

The country believes a center to carry 4 a lunar month of 30 days to discuss

Yesterday, national information center releases newest report to point out, be in environment of domestic and international economy is at present medium below adverse element and the setting that do not determine factor increase, the possibility that economy continues to glide is being increased, and of CPI super- anticipate fall after a rise shows current inflationary pressure is tending alleviation. "Economic boom is in short-term inside will pick up hard " . National information center suggests, ought to adopt proper policy to adjust, will maintain economy stable rapidder development is put in more prominent place.
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